Since 1988 I have been a weather watcher from my home in Galena Forest and now Montreux located in the Carson Range of the Sierra Nevada mountains near Reno, Nevada. Our current location is about 700 ft. lower in elevation but in the same general area. My interest in the weather dates back to my childhood when I am told I would pretend to be the TV weatherman. My years of flying as an instrument rated pilot increased my interest since many times correct weather interpretation kept my family and me alive. As an avid skier I am always interested in the storms that produce the heaven like powder snow we love to play in.
Over the years I found there are lots of folks interested in the same thing. Long range forecasting is my main interest, and it seems that local weather people are very hesitant to forecast very long range ( more than five days). Hence, I decided to begin sending an e-mail to my friends who shared the common interest or just wanted to plan sick days off around big snow dumps. Updates are posted every few days as weather predictions change during the active weather months. From June through September updates are seldom. Daily updates are found on our weather station site noted below. - Randy York
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January 30, 2025 - WEEKEND WEATHER
As January comes to a close, (can you believe a month has gone by since New Years) we are seeing a big change in our weather patterns. An Inside Slider Low moved through the area last weekend bringing a few inches of snow to most elevations given the temperatures were frigid, and then clear skies and a slow warm up has been with us this week. That is about to change as a big, wet series of Atmospheric (AR) systems are bearing down on the West coast for the weekend. Some forecasters are saying up to 6" of precipitation could fall in the higher elevations of the Sierra. Given the warm nature of this storm, snow levels will be 7000 to 8000 ft. and snow ratios 10 to 1 or less. This means 6" of precipitation will amount to 4 to 5 feet of very heavy, wet snow. Reno could receive 1" to 2.5" of rain while Foothill locations could see 3".
The certainty of this occurring beginning Friday afternoon is 95%. So let's look at some graphics that pain the weather picture.
The Jet stream is setting up very nicely on a west to east trajectory aiming directly towards Lake Tahoe and Northern Nevada. Not only is the Jet Stream pointed in the right direction, it is also quite strong with winds at 18,000 ft. nearing 150 mph plus.
The next graphic is the Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) forecast for Saturday at 10 AM. A nice moisture plume is already impacting the Sierra and reaches back towards Hawaii. This is the best indication of an Atmospheric River. Tropical air will keep temperatures above freezing to 8000 ft.
Another forecast showing 6 hour precipitation totals with the storm already onshore Friday with mostly rain due to the warm nature of this system. By Saturday snow levels will rise to 8000 ft.
Here we see the probability of precipitation for Sunday at 4AM. As you can see the Tahoe Basin is projected to be 84% and points east 76%. This storm system will basically sit over our area over the weekend and beyond. The precipitation will come in waves and winds will continue to be strong all weekend. The Sierra could see winds of 100 to 125 mph while wind prone Valley locations wind gust of 50 to 60 mph are expected.
This graphic is the same as the one above only it is forecasted for Tuesday at 4AM. As you can see there is better than a 50% chance for precipitation to continue into Tuesday, although it may be mostly in the Sierra and points west, they show a 44% probability in the Basin and Range.
Prepare for a wet weekend and beyond. Streams and creeks will likely rise, so be alert for any flooding, although flooding isn't forecasted south of I 80 at this point. Tuesday and Wednesday colder air will arrive and snow levels will drop on the back of the storm as it exits. Be prepared for Winter driving.
Another round of storms may arrive later in the week and into the following weekend. The proverbial storm door is open. Right now that system looks to be colder so likely snow will be down to 5500 ft. or so. In the last blog I predicted a wet last half of February, but it looks like it is arriving a couple of weeks early. That's all for now. Have a wonderful weekend.
Check our daily report and the National Weather Service for updates. Our daily report on our weather station site, looks 3 to 5 days ahead.
Please comment if you like on our forecasts, your own observations, or anything else. Our email link is posted below.
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Visit our weather station site for Daily Forecasts at www.renowx.net
Contact us by sending your email to info@renowx.net