Since 1988 I have been a weather watcher from my home in Galena Forest and now Montreux located in the Carson Range of the Sierra Nevada mountains near Reno, Nevada. Our current location is about 700 ft. lower in elevation but in the same general area. My interest in the weather dates back to my childhood when I am told I would pretend to be the TV weatherman. My years of flying as an instrument rated pilot increased my interest since many times correct weather interpretation kept my family and me alive. As an avid skier I am always interested in the storms that produce the heaven like powder snow we love to play in.
Over the years I found there are lots of folks interested in the same thing. Long range forecasting is my main interest, and it seems that local weather people are very hesitant to forecast very long range ( more than five days). Hence, I decided to begin sending an e-mail to my friends who shared the common interest or just wanted to plan sick days off around big snow dumps. Updates are posted every few days as weather predictions change during the active weather months. From June through September updates are seldom. Daily updates are found on our weather station site noted below. - Randy York
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November 18, 2024
These cold days are a reminder that we are heading towards winter even though we still await our first major winter storm event. Several Cold Fronts have moved through the Sierra in the last couple of weeks and have deposited a minimal amount of snow. Cold temperatures have allowed ski areas to operate their snow making equipment and some have even been able to open on a limited basis. The run up to winter has gone about as forecasted up to this point, one exception is the transition of ENSO to La Nina. In the latest CPC update, conditions remain in neutral with La Nina projected to be very weak and only lasting a few months. I don't think this will have a major impact on our forecast until we get into January and more likely February, but we will just have to wait and see.
Looking ahead, we will stick to our annual forecast which we wrote: "November will likely see a couple of good precipitation events. The first one around mid month, and the second around the Thanksgiving Holidays. The mid month event is likely to produce rain below 7500 ft. and snow above, the second event may be cold enough to bring snow down the 5500 ft or below. These two system should produce and good start to the ski season". I made this same statement in the last blog and I'm sticking to it. This week we will see a significant event which will produce feet of snow in the Sierra and mostly rain in Valley locations. Here id what I wrote this morning on our weather site, "Mostly sunny and cold with breezy winds today. Expect Reno to reach 43° and Montreux 39°. A cold morning on the back side of the weak system overnight. Look for a cold but mostly sunny day with winds easing as the day goes on. Partly sunny Tuesday and not quite as cold but below average with increasing clouds and wind in the evening. Wednesday will be the beginning of a significant storm cycle for the Sierra and Northern Nevada. Snow will begin to fall Wednesday afternoon in the Sierra and will continue off and on into the weekend. Snow levels will range from 7500 ft. to 8500 ft. as this system has a warm Pacific moisture tap. Saturday a strong west to east Jet stream will bring an Atmospheric River system into the Sierra producing heavy snow in the Sierra and rain in Valley locations. Snow levels will remain high until Saturday afternoon when it may drop to below 6000 ft. Snow and rain will continue into Sunday." Yes a good old Atmospheric River (AR) is in our immediate future which will deposit significant snows in the higher elevations of the Sierra.
The graphic above shows the Jet Stream position as of early Saturday morning. The moisture plume reaches back to Hawaii with a 160 mph Jet Stream at 25000 ft. directly over the Lake Tahoe area. This is an excellent set up for a winter storm that will bring many feet of snow into the Sierra. Since the the source of the moisture is sub tropical, snow levels will start at 8000 ft. or above.
Above is a graphic from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) showing their forecasted precipitation for next weekend and beyond. As you can see the greatest amount of moisture is shown in Northern California and Nevada, then into Southern Idaho and Utah. Precipitation will be widespread over the west eventually moving into the north central states.
Timing on the storm is still a bit fuzzy. Above is the Integrated Water Vapor Transport forecast from Scripps. This graph shows the available water vapor which when coupled with the storms dynamics is a good indicator of potential precipitation. The time stamp here is for 4 PM on Wednesday. Likely we will see high altitude snow Wednesday night and Thursday in the Sierra. The east side of the Sierra including Reno and Carson City will be mostly shadowed out. Thursday will see light snow continue in the Sierra but Reno may see some breaks in the clouds. Friday afternoon and Saturday will be the best time for precipitation to reach Reno and Carson City and points east as a strong jet and an east to west flow will drive the system over the crest of the Sierra. Later on Saturday temperatures should drop allowing snow to fall to 6000 ft. and possibly below. A short break Sunday then the next Cold Front and the parent Low will move through the area into Tuesday. All of this is subject to revision as we get closer to mid week, but this is my best guess now.
Snow amounts at 8000 ft. and above likely 4' to 8', at 6000 ft. 2' to 4', 5000 ft. could see a foot by Tuesday. Rain amounts in Valley location will likely exceed 1". This isn't a huge storm by Sierra standards, but a very nice start. Beyond Tuesday we will get a good look at Thanksgiving and the beginning of December.
Finally, La Nina has slowed and is now forecasted to be very weak and short lived. This won't be a big factor for the early winter, but may impact the back half of winter. For our area this isn't necessarily bad for our area precipitation wise. You can read more about the current status of La Nina by clicking on this LINK.
Here is a reminder of what we forecasted for the winter. A .PDF version of the entire forecast is available by clicking HERE.
That's it for now, check our daily report and the National Weather Service for updates. Our daily report on our weather station site, looks 3 to 5 days ahead.
Please comment if you like on our forecasts, your own observations, or anything else. Our email link is posted below.
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Visit our weather station site for Daily Forecasts at www.renowx.net
Contact us by sending your email to info@renowx.net