Since 1988 I have been a weather watcher from my home in Galena Forest and now Montreux located in the Carson Range of the Sierra Nevada mountains near Reno, Nevada. Our current location is about 700 ft. lower in elevation but in the same general area. My interest in the weather dates back to my childhood when I am told I would pretend to be the TV weatherman. My years of flying as an instrument rated pilot increased my interest since many times correct weather interpretation kept my family and me alive. As an avid skier I am always interested in the storms that produce the heaven like powder snow we love to play in.
Over the years I found there are lots of folks interested in the same thing. Long range forecasting is my main interest, and it seems that local weather people are very hesitant to forecast very long range ( more than five days). Hence, I decided to begin sending an e-mail to my friends who shared the common interest or just wanted to plan sick days off around big snow dumps. Updates are posted every few days as weather predictions change during the active weather months. From June through September updates are seldom. Daily updates are found on our weather station site noted below. - Randy York
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December 21, 2024
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!! Hope you have most of your Christmas shopping done and are ready to enjoy this special time of the year. By the way, today is the first day of Winter and the days will start to get longer.
There hasn't been much to report since the last writing on 12/12, but a change in patterns has started today that should be welcomed by those wishing for more Winter like weather. Today the first in a series of Troughs moved through our region bringing light snow above 7500 ft. and rain below. So far we recorded 1/10th of an inch of rain. More clouds and light precipitation to come Sunday. This system is a precursor to a stronger system arriving Monday night that will bring more rain and high elevation snow. If you plan to travel over the Sierra before Christmas, Monday would be you best bet.
The Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) graphics give us a good indication of amount and direction of precipitation headed our way. Here we see the forecast for 4 AM Tuesday morning, precipitation will have begun by then, looks like a direct hit to our area. The trajectory of the moisture plume will bring tropical air along with the precipitation, so plan of very high snow levels, likely 7500 ft. or above.
This image is the forecasted Jet Stream at 5 AM on 12/24. Reno is located where the star is indicated. We see the moisture plume or Atmospheric River (AR) reaching way out into the Pacific Ocean, and into the West Coast with the associated Low Pressure Trough converging over the Sierra. This should produce a good amount of precipitation for our area, maybe 2 to 4 feet of snow above 8000 ft. and an inch or two of rain below on Christmas Eve. Strong winds will preceded the Trough and will continue into the late evening. As the Trough moves east, colder air will bring snow levels down, maybe as low as 5500 ft. Skies will clear on Christmas morning and we should see a good amount of sunshine Christmas Day with lighter winds.
This image is from the Weather Prediction Center forecasting the probability of precipitation for 12 hours beginning Christmas Eve at 4 PM into Christmas morning at 4 AM. They are says a 92% probability of heavy precipitation for our area and most of the West Coast.
Here is the IVT for Thursday at 4 AM. As you can see, as explained earlier, more moisture will stream into the Sierra and points east as the Jet Stream directs an AR off the Pacific. Temperatures will likely be a little cooler so we should see another couple feet of snow down to 7000 ft.
One final IVT, this forecast is for Saturday and 10 AM. We continue to see another wave of moisture to arrive on the heals of the Thursday/Friday system. Looks like from Wednesday night on, we will be mostly cloudy with periods of snow and rain through the following weekend. Snow levels will remain pretty high in the Sierra with heavy rain at times in Valley locations. This graphic also show a slight arch in the Plume caused by high pressure to the south which indicates we may see an end to the AR soon after.
As we approach the New Year it looks like we will dry out and see temperature more seasonal, in the 40's in Reno. If the skies clear that week you can expect a cold New Years eve for those planning a midnight trip downtown to Celebrate the arrival of 2025.
That all for now, here is wishing all of you a Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!!
Check our daily report and the National Weather Service for updates. Our daily report on our weather station site, looks 3 to 5 days ahead.
Please comment if you like on our forecasts, your own observations, or anything else. Our email link is posted below.
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Visit our weather station site for Daily Forecasts at www.renowx.net
Contact us by sending your email to info@renowx.net